2024 Outlook

The Cambridge Associates 2024 Outlook features our investment outlook for 2024, separated into eight key investment themes. Access the full report and webinar here.

The Global Economic Backdrop in 2024

Our investment views are rooted in our belief that the cyclical backdrop will remain weak in 2024. The consensus expectation is for the global economy to grow 2.7%, which is slightly less than growth is anticipated to be in 2023 and below its post-2000 average of 3.5%. While we believe the global growth rate will be positive, risks are skewed to either matching the consensus expectation or missing it lower. Weakness in global aggregate demand will help those inflation rates that experienced pandemic-related surges continue to decelerate. We expect this will allow most key central banks to modestly cut policy rates before the end of 2024.

Three major drivers inform these views. First, credit growth in key markets is likely to remain subdued, given high interest rates and the increase in bank underwriting standards. Second, consumer spending growth is likely to either slow (United States) or remain slow (euro area and United Kingdom), given the depletion of any excess savings that accrued during the pandemic and weakness in consumer confidence. Third, numerous challenges, such as the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, and China’s real estate crisis, will continue to weigh on sentiment and have the unfortunate potential to escalate.